The drone industry is on the brink of significant expansion, with global intelligence firm ABI Research forecasting the market's growth to hit $123 billion by 2030. This surge is largely driven by the burgeoning civil and commercial applications of drones. These systems are set to expand their share of the total market from a modest 8% to a substantial 32% over the next decade.
Annual drone shipments are expected to more than double in this period, rising from 1.5 million units in 2024 to a projected 3.32 million by 2030. Such growth is poised to quadruple the drone ecosystem's value, marking a transformative shift in both commercial and civil drone landscapes, according to ABI Research’s comprehensive report.
George Chowdhury, a robotics industry analyst at ABI Research, highlighted the key factors driving this growth. He noted that advancements in drone regulation and autonomy would be crucial. "The ability to safely fly drones in built-up areas and over long distances Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) will unlock the real value proposition of drones," said Chowdhury. "sUAS can potentially revolutionize many industries, notably last mile delivery and agriculture, where the advantage of low-cost drones is second to none."
The commercial drone market is already witnessing rapid expansion. Companies like Gather AI are making significant strides in warehouse automation, while Flyability and Percepto are enhancing inspection efficiencies across various industries. In agriculture and real estate sectors, service providers such as Sentera and Skywash leverage drone technology to create new value streams.
However, Chowdhury points out that the most substantial growth area will be last-mile delivery. Projections suggest revenue from this segment will soar from $800 million to $12.4 billion by 2030, showcasing an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.2%. Leading companies in this burgeoning field, including Zipline, Google’s Wing, and Amazon’s Prime Air, are poised to capture significant market shares within the delivery vertical.
As the utilization of airspace increases, the attachment rates for critical hardware such as radar, LiDAR, and high-definition cameras will also see significant growth. Concurrently, the use of cellular antennas will expand to support remote deployments and enhance the private network capabilities of telecommunications giants like Ericsson and Nokia, aiming to foster the expansion of drone usage.
The inclusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) chipsets, including GPU and ASIC, in sUAS is anticipated to grow to encompass 79% of all drones by 2030, equating to a CAGR of 50%. These AI chipsets bring performance enhancements through technologies like Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM), machine vision, and semi-autonomous flight.
Airborne robotics present compelling value propositions across nearly every industry, with the power to transform existing business models and unlock new robotics use cases and applications. Chowdhury advises businesses, government entities, and military organizations to keep abreast of these developments, as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) continues to issue waivers for sUAS BVLOS operations virtually every month. "Disruption and innovation are hovering just over the horizon," Chowdhury concludes.
These insights are part of ABI Research’s report on The Small Unmanned Aerial System Ecosystem, shedding light on a future where drones form a pivotal component of numerous industries and applications.
.png)
